MODELING THE RESILIENCE OF ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATIONS TO HYBRID CYBERATTACKS: APPROACHES AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE

DOI: 10.31673/2409-7292.2025.030258

Abstract

The article explores approaches to modeling the resilience of electronic communications to hybrid cyberattacks, which
pose a growing threat to critical information infrastructure in the context of modern cyber-hybrid warfare. The main attention
is paid to the use of scenario analysis and simulation modeling as a means of studying the resilience of telecommunication
systems to combined attacks that combine technical (DDoS, routing attack, traffic interception) and information-psychological
(phishing, manipulative influence) components. A methodology for building hybrid scenarios has been developed and an
experimental environment has been created using OMNeT++, Scapy (Python) and NetEm for testing critical operating
conditions. As part of the study, several typical attacks were simulated with the fixation of quality of service (QoS), recovery
time (RTO) and structural network stability metrics. It was found that the combination of infrastructural and cognitive impact
can lead to a degradation of functionality up to 50% and a significant increase in recovery time, especially in the case of the
absence of backup channels and network segmentation. The results of the study can be used to design telecommunications
architectures with an increased level of resilience, build digital twins for preventive risk assessment, as well as form a national
regulatory framework in the field of ensuring cyber resilience of critical infrastructure.
Keywords: hybrid threats, electronic communications, attack scenarios, resilience modeling, cyber infrastructure,
network resilience, simulation.

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